Handicapping the Midterms

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Let the race begin! [mescobosa / Flickr]

Let the handicapping begin!

On the eve of the last big round of primaries, and in the wake of the rest, we’re looking forward to the midterms. There’s been talk of a reversal not seen since the ’94 Republican revolution, and there’s recent talk of a resurgent Bush. But what have we learned so far? What rhyme or reason do you see when Lamont beats Lieberman, Clinton trounces Tasini, and Chafee takes Laffey? Is there any lesson beyond the fact that if you’re taking on an incumbent it’s best to bring your own war chest to the party?

Is there a defining issue for this diverse set of elections, something that unites House, Senate, and gubernatorial races? Is it all terror, all the time? (Or maybe all Iraq, all the time?) Is it Fear vs. Loathing? Who’s putting immigration front and center? Health care? Global warming? Or the “values” issues that supposedly defined the 2004 election, before the conventional wisdom changed? Any chance that flag burning will return to the agenda?

Are we looking at a reprise of Kos and the netroots vs. Dobson and the megachurches, or is there another demographic electoral shift no one’s paying attention to? And who gets out more votes?

Step right up. Be a prognosticator. What races are you following, either in your neck of the woods or in another corner of the country? What’s your favorite bellwether? What’s your favorite outlier?