Midterm Updates from New Mexico's 1st District

Heather Wilson has several things going for her (incumbency, a strong military/National Lab presence here, much better get out the vote for Republicans historically, etc.) that has up to the last week or so made people unwilling to bet me a six-pack on the race.

Scot Key, in an email to Open Source October 11 2006.

New Mexico’s 1st district House race is another nail-biter. We’ve been following the race for our Election Wiki, looking for bloggers on the ground in and around Albuquerque to tell us what the race looks like from there. Republican incumbent Heather Wilson is, according to the most recent credible poll, exactly tied with her opponent, Patricia Madrid (D), 44-44. Major issues include Iraq and Wilson’s support for various Bush projects, but are the issues taking a backseat to mud slinging? Blogger Jon Knudson, of Albloggerque, tells us that the tense race is breeding some less-than-civil campaign tactics:

Wilson is trying to make this a local campaign. She attacks Madrid relentlessly as a person. She subtly plays the Hispanic issue, trying to link her with corruption on the part of other people. Other issues present in recent ads: a half-true attack on Madrid as being responsible for a potential “child rapist” walking the streets. This ad was so vicious and untrue that the TV stations themselves exposed its misleading character. Wilson is saying that the real issue in this campaign is Patricia Madrid herself, whom she constantly refers to as “Patsy.”

Jon Knudson, in an email to Open Source October 12 2006.

It seems Wilson’s connections to the former Senator Mark Foley are a hot issue as well, though Scot Key, author of ‘Burque Babble, tells us that Wilson’s former post as Director of the New Mexico Children, Youth and Families Department helps Wilson defend herself against charges of negligence (she sat on the House Page Board in 2003-4). Scot is putting his money on Wilson, though he supports Madrid.

Madrid will do better than previous Democratic candidates v. Wilson in getting Dems to vote for her… I still worry about turnout (bunches and bunches of worry), and the growing voter (or non-voter) fatigue over the Three-Ring Circus that is the Madrid/Wilson race…One other big factor is that the overall ballot this mid-term election is really boring. Governor Richardson’s a shoo-in, as is our Senate incumbent Bingaman. Turnout will be depressed, naturally, for this reason. Whether that helps Rs, as it usually does, or Ds, because of a dearth of decent Republican candidates, is a tough call.

Scot Key, in an email to Open Source October 11 2006.

Madrid yard signs are everywhere. Wilson has few or none… For years Wilson has used a yellow yard sign that says “Another home for Heather.” You can spot them a mile away; they are so distinctive. She is just barely starting to do it again now. But the Madrid camp has already come out with a lot of signs the same size and color as the Wilson ones that state: “Fire Halliburton Heather!” So those yellow signs that used to signify Wilson territory now probably mean just the opposite.

Jon Knudson, in an email to Open Source October 12 2006.

So, in the end, what’s the outcome?

Heather is going to try to win this on personality. I don’t think this is ultimately going to determine this election. I think Madrid is winning right now by maybe 3 or 4 points. Next poll is due out Oct 22. I expect Heather to rebound and the polls will be damn close by election day.

Jon Knudson, in an email to Open Source October 12 2006.

Final guess (barring no nuclear-sized October/Nov. surprises): I owe some people beer…but barely. Madrid wins in a squeaker. A nerve-wracking squeaker.

Scot Key, in an email to Open Source October 11 2006.